Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Under Scrutiny as Liquidity Dynamics Shift
Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, historically driven by halving events and miner rewards, is being challenged as liquidity factors take precedence in the market. Prices currently hover around $100,000, marking a 20% decline from October's peak above $126,000. Major players like Wintermute are now questioning the relevance of the halving cycle, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. This article explores the evolving narrative around Bitcoin's price drivers and what it means for the future of cryptocurrency investments.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Challenged as Liquidity Takes Center Stage
Bitcoin’s once-predictable four-year cycle, driven by halving events and miner rewards, is facing existential questions. The traditional script—scarcity begets price rallies—no longer commands the market’s unwavering belief. Prices hover NEAR $100,000, down 20% from October’s peak above $126,000, as liquidity dynamics overshadow halving narratives.
Wintermute, a major crypto market maker, declares the halving cycle irrelevant. 'What drives performance now is liquidity,' the firm asserts—a heresy to Bitcoin purists, but one backed by data. ETFs, stablecoins, and institutional flows dominate; miner issuance is now a rounding error.
The latest price action mirrors ETF inflows with surgical precision. A record $5.95 billion flooded crypto ETFs in early October, propelling Bitcoin to its all-time high. When capital flows slowed, so did the rally—proof that liquidity, not halvings, now writes the rules.
Bitcoin's Volatility Tests Institutional Confidence as Price Dips Below $100K
Bitcoin's failure to sustain prices above $100,000 has reignited debates about its maturity as an institutional asset. The cryptocurrency briefly tumbled to $99,075 on November 4—its lowest level since May—before recovering marginally to $102,437. This 3% retreat from the day's peak at $104,777 marks the first time this year that bitcoin has underperformed US Treasuries, unraveling a favored 2025 macro trade.
Long-term holders are driving the downturn, liquidating holdings at unprecedented rates. Analyst James Van Straten estimates daily sales of 3,100 BTC since July, accelerating to 9,000 BTC in recent weeks. Johan Bergman's calculations suggest even steeper profit-taking, with realized gains surging from $600 billion to $754 billion since June.
Market observers caution against interpreting the MOVE index shift as systemic failure. 'This reflects structural recalibration, not collapse,' notes one strategist, as Bitcoin's volatility continues testing institutional appetite for crypto exposure.
Bitcoin Shows Early Recovery Signs as US Government Shutdown Ends—Historical Data Suggests 50% Upside Potential
Bitcoin is signaling a potential rebound, trading at $103,911 with a 3.30% gain over the past 24 hours. Analysts note growing accumulation around the $103K level, a typical precursor to upward momentum. Technical patterns suggest a rising channel formation, with $105K as the immediate resistance target.
Historical trends indicate Bitcoin tends to surge following US government shutdown resolutions. Market sentiment is further supported by institutional interest and macroeconomic tailwinds. "If volume sustains, this could mark the beginning of a new uptrend," observes crypto analyst SatochiTrader.
Bitcoin’s Calm Before the Storm: Arthur Hayes Warns of Misjudged Weakness
Bitcoin's recent decline below $104,000 has sparked panic, with prices dropping 17% monthly. Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, dismisses fears of a market top, framing the slump as a prelude to the next rally. Liquidity drains from long-term holders and U.S. fiscal policy have created fragile conditions, but Hayes anticipates a Federal Reserve pivot to stealth QE will reignite bullish momentum.
"Between now and when stealth QE starts, one has to husband capital," Hayes wrote, characterizing current softness as temporary. The approaching four-year cycle anniversary of Bitcoin's 2021 peak may lure traders into premature exits—a MOVE Hayes calls "a mistake." Market weakness, he argues, is merely the liquidity reboot before the storm.
Swiss Bitcoin Treasury Firm FUTURE Secures $34.5M to Build Institutional Platform
Zurich-based FUTURE has raised $34.5 million from prominent investors Fulgur Ventures, Nakamoto, and TOBAM to establish Europe's premier institutional Bitcoin treasury platform. The funding round signals growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
The company boasts a leadership team with DEEP roots in both traditional finance and cryptocurrency. Chairman Richard Byworth of Syz Capital is joined by CEO Sebastien Hess, a veteran of Rocket Internet and Peter Thiel-backed Block Green. Co-founders include Blockstream CEO Adam Back, whose Hashcash invention contributed to Bitcoin's proof-of-work mechanism.
"This round brings together investors who share our conviction in Bitcoin and our team's capability," stated Hess. The funding will accelerate FUTURE's mission to bridge traditional finance with Bitcoin adoption among institutions.
Bitcoin Mining Profitability Hits Two-Year Low Amid AI Pivot and Hashrate Surge
Bitcoin's mining profitability has collapsed to levels last seen in 2023, with hashprice—the revenue miners earn per unit of computational power—plunging to $42.14 per terahash per day. This places it in the bottom 4% of its historical range. The decline, accelerated by a 19% drop in the past month, comes despite Bitcoin's price stabilizing near $101,500.
The squeeze stems from structural pressures: network difficulty has surged 31% over six months, while hashrate grew 23%. On-chain fees, once buoyed by Ordinals-driven activity, have evaporated to spring 2025 lows. The result is a Darwinian divide—miners with access to cheap power and modern equipment continue operations, while others face existential threats.
An industry once homogeneous now fractures into two tiers. Some miners pivot aggressively toward AI data center operations, while others cling to outdated infrastructure. The hashpower arms race leaves no room for nostalgia—survival demands capital flexibility and energy arbitrage prowess.
